Seeking a carbon-low future: COP15

The 4th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report has shown that climate changes are a reality today, and that the main culprit is greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activity. On the 7th December 2009 Heads of State, Environment Ministers and Officials met at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP15) in Copenhagen to thrash out a global agreement coordinating international action against climate change.

A key question for the summit was how much are industrialised countries and major developing countries such as China and India willing to reduce or limit their emissions. The graph shows CO2 emissions from transport fuel combustion in China, India and the United States. For further information on CO2 emissions data, see the ESDS International thematic guide on CO2 emissions - http://www.esds.ac.uk/international/support/user_guides/I4C.pdf.

Data Source: International Energy Agency, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (Edition: 2008), ESDS International (Mimas), University of Manchester.

16 October 2009: World Food Day

In the context of the World Food Week and World Food Day 2009 it has been estimated that now almost one sixth of all humanity is suffering from hunger. In discussing how to feed the world in 2050, Jaques Diouf, the director general of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), has stated that the world population is expected to soar by 34 per cent to 9.1 billion by that date, with the growth taking place entirely in developing countries.

‘Young Lives: an International Study of Childhood Poverty’ follows 8000 children born in 2000/2001 over a 15-year period in four developing countries: India, Peru, Ethopia and Vietnam. At the age of five, 9 per cent to 34 per cent of the surveyed households experienced food shortages (see figure).

Data Source: Young Lives: an International Study of Childhood Poverty

Release of the Lockerbie bomber (posted 20 August 2009)

Abdelbaset Ali al-Megrahi, the only person to be convicted of the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 which exploded over the Scottish town of Lockerbie on 21 December 1988, has today been released on compassionate grounds.

The Lockerbie bombing took Libya deep into international isolation. Punitive UN sanctions restricted international trade and curtailed investment in the country's oil infrastructure. The chart shows how these sanctions suppressed Libyan trade with the rest of the world throughout the 1990's.

Colonel Gaddafi's decision to compensate victims and extradite suspects for trial led to the lifting of sanctions in 2003 and Libya's eventual rehabilitation into the international community.
Data Source: Bilateral and multilateral trade data from IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

Trust in the European Parliament (posted 4 June 2009)

As EU countries go to the polls for the European Parliamentary elections, evidence from the most recent Eurobarometer (EB) survey available suggests that, taken together, European citizens continue to place more trust in the European Parliament than their own national legislatures. When asked about the European Parliament, over half the respondents to EB 70.1 indicated that they 'tend to trust' that institution. The same survey showed the equivalent figure for trust in the respondent's own national parliament to be running at around a third of the respondents.

Of course, these EU-wide results conceal important national variations. Trust in the European Parliament was highest in Slovakia at 70 per cent, whilst the UK respondents topped the table for 'tend not to trust' at 51 per cent. Variation in attitudes towards national parliaments was larger still with a mere 8 per cent of Bulgarians tending to trust their parliament. In contrast, three quarters of Danish respondents appear to have trust in their parliament.

Data Source: Eurobarometer 70.1, Oct-Nov 2008.

Note that data from this EB are still under embargo, though a European Commission report outlining the main findings from that survey is available.

Iceland freezes over (posted 27 March 2009)

By the summer of 2008, Icelandic banks owed around six times the country's total GDP and, as conditions tightened in the global credit market, the country's economic difficulties became evident. Efforts to stabilise the financial system failed and shortly afterwards Iceland became the first western country to apply to the International Monetary Fund for emergency financial aid since 1976. The chart shows one example of the rapid revising of Iceland's economic forecast that took place during 2008.
Data Source: IMF World Economic Outlook

America votes: 4 November 2008 (posted 3 Nov 2008)

Evidence from the American National Election Studies (ANES) indicates that, in recent decades, more United States voters are deciding which way to vote later in the campaign and, for elections where a two-term President is unable to stand for a third time, there are yet more voters deciding late.

If the 2008 Presidential election follows the same pattern, there may still remain a large number of 'undecideds' among the electorate, suggesting that Democrat Barack Obama's clear lead in the late-October/early-November polls may not be completely secure.

Data Source: American National Election Studies

ESDS-registered users based at UK educational institutions may order ANES data held at the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR) – see the final section of Accessing international survey (micro) data for details.

Postscript: 5th November - Obama wins!

World Food Day (posted 16 October 2008)

A ‘perfect storm’ of surging demand, bad harvests, rising oil prices, speculative trading in commodities and competition for land from non-food biofuel crops resulted in sharp increases in the price of basic foodstuffs earlier this year. Prices moderated slightly in late summer after plentiful harvests but the global supply of food is expected to remain tight as the longer term pressures of population growth, urbanisation and environmental stress continue.

Data Source: Commodity prices from the IMF International Financial Statistics

Britain ‘Good at Sport’ Shock (posted 28 August 2008)

China won 51 gold medals at the 2008 Beijing Olympics and so became the first country other than the US or former Soviet Union to lead the medal table in 72 years. Team GB won 19 gold medals, the best result for the UK since the 1908 Olympics in London, and resulting in 4th place in the final table.

In the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ alternative table of medals per capita, the Bahamas ranks first, closely followed by Norway and Australia. North Korea and Jamaica top the tables of medals per unit of GDP.

Data Sources: Beijing 2008 Olympic Games, Australian Bureau of Statistics, GDP data from the World Bank World Development Indicators

Air pollution in China (posted 5 August 2008)

In the run up to the 2008 Olympic Games, China has worked hard to bring air pollution levels in Beijing to within WHO standards. Driving through the city has been restricted, construction projects halted and heavy-polluting factories closed in the capital and surrounding provinces. Air pollution results from a cocktail of several pollutants, including particulate matter, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide and ozone. The graph shows China currently has relatively high rates of premature deaths from particulate matter urban air pollution, and these rates are forecast to increase further by 2030.
Data Source: OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030

Oil prices reach record high (posted 9th June 2008)

Robust demand for crude, real and threatened disruptions in supply, a speculative rush into commodities and weak dollar have all fuelled the recent sharp increases in the price of oil. Strong demand from rapidly industrialising economies in Asia and South America has combined with investment flows from traders, pension and hedge funds seeking refuge from the credit crunch to drive the price of oil up to a new high of $135 a barrel this month. The International Energy Agency have forecast the tight supply will continue until at least 2012.

Why the price of oil is high
Demand While previous spikes in the price of oil have been triggered by disruptions in supply, increasing demand is the main driver of the current rally. Global growth in demand has slowed since 2004 but demand is still rising, despite the economic slowdown in the United States, with growth in the fast industrialising countries such as India and China particularly high.
Funds Speculative trading and investment funds into commodities, including oil, have boomed in recent months. Commodities are seen a safe refuge for traders seeking to avoid other markets more directly affected by the global credit crunch.
Disruptions in supply OPEC member Venezuela suspended oil exports to Exxon Mobil following the company's challenge to the government's nationalization of an oil project. The supply of crude from Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil exporter, has also been disrupted by local attacks on the country's oil infrastructure. Anti-Iranian posturing by Israel and the US has raised fears of a future disruption in supply from one of the world's largest suppliers and the IEA have also raised concerns about the level of provable reserves held by the big oil producers.
Iraq Iraq is still in the process of developing its oil infrastructure following decades of war, sanctions and underinvestment.
Dollar weakness The fall in the value of the dollar against other major currencies has helped drive the buying across commodities as dollar assets are relatively cheap. It has also increased the purchasing power of non-dollar consumers, such as China, while investors are also using oil as a hedge against future falls in the value of the dollar.
Data Source: IMF International Financial Statistics, May 2008 release

May 15th: International Day of Families (posted 14th May 2008)

The theme for this year’s International Day of Families, celebrated on May 15, is ‘Fathers and Families: Responsibilities and Challenges’. The International Social Survey Programme asked respondents whether or not they agree with the statement ‘A man’s job is to earn money; a woman’s job is to look after the home and family’ in 1988, 1994 and 2002. A full time series for this period exists for six countries: the majority has observed a sharp decline in agreement with the statement. Data Source: ISSP Family and Changing Gender Roles modules

May 14th: Israel turns 60 (posted 6th May 2008)

Israel is a country built on immigration, with around 40% of the population born elsewhere. The chart shows Israel and Palestine's net migration, that is, the number of incoming international migrants less outgoing international migrants. The large peak in Israeli immigration during the 1990's reflects the huge influx of migrants following the break up of the former Soviet Union.
Data Source: UN Common Database, December 2007 update

Hyperinflation and hunger in Zimbabwe (posted 28th March 2008)

Official figures released this February estimate the current annual inflation rate in Zimbabwe at 100,580%, by far the highest in the world. Government attempts to curb inflation through price control programmes have failed, serving instead to compound shortages and accelerate Zimbabwe’s move from a food secure country to one with widespread hunger. The map, which comes from ESDS International’s visualization interface, shows the variation in consumer price inflation across Africa.
Data Source: IMF World Economic Outlook

Ethnicity and politics in Kenya (posted 6th February 2008)

The outbreaks of violence since the disputed election of December 2007 have highlighted the ethnic divides in Kenya, traditionally thought of as one of Africa's most stable democracies. Data from Afrobarometer shows the ruling Kikuyu overwhelmingly support the incumbent President, while the Luo and Kalenjin ally themselves with different ethnically based opposition parties. It is worth noting that all parties receive some support from all three groups.
Data Source: Afrobarometer, Round 3, 2005.