Conference Abstracts
Using ESDS International Data in Energy and Environment Models
Mark Barrett, University College London
Introduction to energy and environment modelling and use of databases for developing energy and environment policy.
The presentation will cover these points:
- Objectives of modelling: strategy for energy security and controlling environmental impact
- Dimensions of modelling: physical flows, costs in time and space
- Models used: national energy systems, electricity, buildings, transport, aviation, energy trading, Large Point Sources of emission
Specific modelling projects
- General software environment and data access methods
- Country energy scenarios with Society Energy and Environment model (SEEScen): model structure, process, databases, results
- Large Point Sources: model structure, process, databases, results
Considerations for improvement:
- Meta-database; a database of databases (ESDS and other)
- Addition/integration/linking of other databases to ESDS
- Issues of access; convenience, cost
- Coding: standard codes, mapping of codes (one to one)
- Definition mapping one-many (e.g. sectors)
Software programmes (Access, Excel, Visual Basic…)
- Data imaging: charts, maps
Why are there Serial Defaulters? Evidence
from Constitutions
Emanuel Kohlscheen, University of Warwick
Presidential democracies were 4.9 times more likely to default on external
debts between 1976 and 2000 than parliamentary democracies. This paper argues
that the explanation to the pattern of serial defaults among a number of sovereign
borrowers lies in their constitutions. Ceteris paribus, parliamentary democracies
are less likely to default on their liabilities as the confidence requirement
creates a credible link between economic policies and the political survival
of the executive. This link tends to strengthen the repayment commitment when
politicians are opportunistic. I show that this effect is large and statistically
significant in the contemporary world even when comparison is restricted to
countries that are twins in terms of colonial origin, geography and economic
variables. Moreover, the result persists if OECD or Latin American democracies
are excluded from the sample. Since the form of government of a country is
typically chosen at the time of independence and highly persistent over time,
constitutions can explain why debt policies in developing countries are related
to individual histories.
A Cointegration Analysis of EMU Convergence of the CEEC5 EU Accession Countries
Andrey Damianov, Oxford Brookes University
After the accession to the EU the new members of Central and East European countries (CEECs) are obliged to adopt the Euro. This was a precondition for their EU accession. The aim of the research project is to achieve an econometric analysis of the extent of economic integration achieved by the Central and Eastern European accession countries Czech Republic, Slovenia, Estonia, Poland and Hungary (also known as the
CEEC5) among themselves and vis-a-vis the euro-area economy by empirically investigating the degree of EMU convergence of the CEEC5 with respect to some of the nominal and real variables of economic activity and by using the multivariate cointegration approach.
The Effects of the Increase in Population Density on the Provision of Infrastructure
in Post-Independence Sub-Saharan Africa
Florian Ramseger, London School of Economics
In the post-independence drive to industrialisation, the governments of Sub-Saharan
Africa aimed to increase investment in their infrastructure. For these sparsely populated
countries, public spending was naturally constrained by per capita tax revenue. Nonetheless,
the continent experienced rapid population growth such that population density doubled
within a quarter of a century. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of this rapid
increase in population density on the provision of transportation and telecommunication
infrastructure.
Following the work of Julian Simon, it is hypothesised that there was a positive effect
of the increase in population density on infrastructure provision at the country level. A
second and more specific working hypothesis, derived from a theoretical model of public
goods provision, is that despite having been positive, this effect was not big enough to result
in increases in per capita infrastructure provision.
Four different types of infrastructure are considered: the lengths of the paved road and
railway networks as well as the numbers of telephones and telephone lines in a country. The
hypotheses are tested by regressing these on population size, controlling for GDP,
urbanisation, colonialism, military conflict and country fixed effects. The sample used for
this purpose is a panel of national-level observations from 37 Sub-Saharan countries
covering the time period from 1960 to 1980.
There is evidence that the increase in population density had a positive effect even on
per capita numbers of telephone lines and telephones, and on per capita paved road
kilometres. In the case of railway line networks, however, no such effect was found.
Do Host Country Factors Affect the Contribution of FDI to Economic
Growth?
Edna Solomon, University of Essex
This paper investigates how the combination of three host country factors:
the level of human capital, the level of financial development and the level of
institutional quality affects the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment
(FDI) and economic growth. The model employed in this analysis is based on
Borenstein et al.(1999). This paper extends their model to include three interaction terms between FDI and each of the three host country factors respectively.
Data is obtained for 83 developed and developing countries from 1970 to 2003.
This study relies heavily on data from the World Bank's World Development
Indicators. The empirical analysis is carried out using modern GMM techniques
that are suited to dynamic panel data models. The impact of FDI itself on economic growth depends on the magnitude of technological spillovers that FDI
generates. The extent to which the host country factors affect the relationship
between FDI and economic growth depends on how much they contribute to
the ability of FDI to generate technological spillovers.
The Determinants of US Foreign Direct Investment flows from 1982 to 2003, a static and dynamic panel data approach
Milton Salas Martinez, University of Essex
Globalisation and greater trade openness worldwide in the last two decades have led to massive increases
in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Multinational Corporations (MNCs). The USA is the world's biggest outward investor.
In this paper, we investigate the main determinants of FDI flows from the USA to 52 developed and developing economies
from 1982 to 2003. To accomplish this, we adopt both static and dynamic panel data approaches applied to the model of
Markusen (1997). We find that several factors play important roles in attracting FDI. These factors
include the exchange rate, inflation, market size, differences in the level of skilled labour and costs of transportation
Moving into the 21st Century: The IMF's Transition to a New Environment
for the Web Dissemination of its Statistical Databases.
Cathy Wright, International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses the experience of the International Monetary Fund’s Statistics
Department as it attempts to move, somewhat belatedly, from a focus on the preparation and
dissemination of print publications to a focus on the release of its statistics via a web-based,
on-line environment. Important lessons have been learned from consulting studies and from reviews of
the web sites of other statistical organizations. With the benefit of the consulting studies and
collaboration among several IMF departments progress in being made. Much work remains to be undertaken but
the foundation is now firmly in place.
Global and Regional Labour Market Information Employment Trends
and Issues
Lawrence Jeffrey Johnson, International Labour Organisation,
Geneva, Switzerland
Lawrence Jeff Johnson is the Chief of the Employment Trends Team at the International Labour Organization (ILO).
The Trends Team is responsible for developing labour market indicators and analysis on global, regional and
country-level labour market trends at the ILO.
The Trends Team prepares and disseminates global and regional
labour market indicators and analysis based national statistics from household
and establishment surveys, population censuses and administrative records. The effort supported the
publication of the Key Indicators of the Labour Market Database and Report as well as the Global Employment Trends.
The collection of reports and databases developed by the Team provides evidence to support the fact
that global economic growth is increasingly failing to translate into decent and productive employment that
lead to a reduction in poverty. Within this global trend, different regions show mixed results in terms of
job creation, productivity results, wage improvements and poverty reduction.
The key message is that up to now job and income security for the world's workers has
been an afterthought in global development. Globalization has so far not led to the creation
of sufficient and sustainable decent employment opportunities around the world.
That has to change, and many leaders are increasingly aware of the need to make decent
work for all a central plank of all economic and social policies.
The story behind the numbers: what makes World Bank databases the standard for development data
Valentina Kalk, The World Bank
In this session, Valentina Kalk from the World Bank will describe the Bank's work with statistics,
including an overview of the Bank's main databases, how data are collecteded, normalized and disseminated,
and how they are used within and outside the Bank; also, how the Bank collaborates with other development
organizations and national governments to develop sound practices in statistics.
Poster Abstracts
Intute: Social Sciences
Stuart Macdonald, EDINA National Data Cantre, University of Edinburgh
Intute: Social Sciences (formerly known as SOSIG) provide access to a selected source of relevant, high-quality Internet resources for social science researchers, academics and practitioners. The service is based at the Universities of Bristol and Birmingham in association with over seventeen partner universities around the UK.
It is part of the larger Intute service, which provides access to Internet resources in all major academic disciplines to support learning, teaching and research. Intute provides access to a selected and organized range of Internet resources for the Social Sciences in a wide range of subject areas including a dedicated section for statistics and data as well as a number of additional services to help you get the best out of the Internet for your work.
The University Information System RUSSIA
Oleg Karasev, Moscow State University
The University Information System RUSSIA (UIS RUSSIA) is a digital library for research and education in economics and social sciences. It has been in operation since 2000. Actually up to 2 million documents from 60+ collections are integrated. The database includes: legislation of the Russian Federation; state statistics; think tanks reports; academic publications; mass media ; public opinion polls data; international organizations databases; foreign universities collections.
The technology for automatic linguistic text processing (ALTP) was designed and implemented within the framework of the project. The technology provides for the UIS RUSSIA being maintained as an integrated resource with content-based search and navigation across collections and query refinement. Annotations for full text documents are produced in automatic mode and compliment a full text.
Subject-oriented modules are accomplished on most demanded research and education fields - "Statistics of RF", "Budget System of RF", "Agriculture Statistics ", "Socio-demographic Statistics", "RF Regions and Municipalities".
Special efforts are done for statistical data. The data is converted into formats convenient for processing and analysis. Accomplished in 2006 is the database that integrates data from State Statistics Service and Ministry of Finance. Other state agencies data will be added. Tools for data visualization are available, including developed graphics- and maps-based data representation, etc. The product is of demand for investigations and education. It is also used for public administration.
Work underway is the ontology to integrate data and knowledge products demanded for system and comparative analysis.
ESDS International
Celia Russell and Karen Dennison, University of Manchester and UK Data Archive, University of Essex
ESDS International provides access to a range of international databanks produced by intergovernmental organisations such as the IMF and World Bank. We also help UK-based users to locate and acquire micro data from other social science data archives within Europe and worldwide, via a system of data exchange agreements. The service aims to promote and facilitate increased and more effective use of international datasets in research, learning and teaching across a range of disciplines. This poster session will provide an overview of the service and the data portfolio. There will also be the opportunity to let the ESDS International team know of your data needs and thoughts on future service development.
Structural Adjustment, Development and Democracy
Mark Brawley and Nicole Baerg,
McGill University and ESDS International, University of Manchester
Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs) endorsed by international financial institutions (IFIs) have often failed politically- failed in the sense that the policies lost domestic support before they had time to achieve their economic goals. In this paper, we contend that SAPs failed to achieve their expected effects because they drew on macroeconomic models, ignoring both microeconomic processes and politics. Despite the importance of politics for their economic success, SAPs are not crafted with politics in mind, nor do they link their macroeconomic targets (low inflation, growth) with microeconomic processes (structural unemployment, joblessness). Using a new economic model designed to bridge trade performance with the adjustment process itself, we offer a new perspective on the obstacles confronting economic liberalisation in developing countries. We find that this model offers valuable insights into how SAPs can be modified to improve the target’s balance of payments, use trade to spur economic growth, and create a political coalition that would support liberalization and promote democratic rule.
Linking Micro and Macro data
Peter Whitton, MIMAS, University of Manchester
Users of survey and aggregate data are often two very distinct groups of researchers that have a tendency not to use both types of data. One of the main reasons for this is thought to be lack of awareness about availability and about how different data types can be combined to inform, enrich and generate new research perspectives. The Linking Macro and Micro Data (LIMMD) project aims to address these issues by providing an interactive online training course that identifies the potential benefits and problems associated with linking international aggregate and survey data. The project also aims to promote the resources available to researchers through the ESDS International data service. The project will reach completion in May 2007 when the materials will be made freely available to the UK academic community. Further details about LIMMD can be accessed at: http://www.mimas.ac.uk/limmd/
MIMAS
Anne McCombe, University of Manchester
MIMAS is a national data centre supported by JISC and the ESRC and hosted by The University of Manchester.
MIMAS provides the UK Further and Higher education and research community with networked access to key data and information resources to support teaching, learning and research across a wide range of disciplines.
Counting People In: Measuring Participation in Higher Education by Developing Equity Scorecards
Professor Louise Morley, Dr Fiona Leach and Rosemary Lugg, School of Education, University of Sussex
Widening Participation in Higher Education in Ghana and Tanzania: Developing An Equity Scorecard. A Research Project funded by the ESRC/DFID Poverty Reduction Programme
There is a political economy of access and participation in higher education. Higher education is repeatedly positioned by the international community as a central site for facilitating the skills, knowledge and expertise that are essential to economic and social development in low-income counties. However, globally, there are concerns about who gains access to higher education and whether some socio-economic groups are persistently marginalised.
The project on Widening Participation in Higher Education in Ghana and Tanzania brings together a team of researchers from the University of Sussex, the University of Dar Es Salaam (Tanzania) and Cape Coast University (Ghana) to examine patterns of inclusion and exclusion in higher education in these countries.
Working with a public university and a private university in Ghana and Tanzania, the project will collect and analyse quantitative data on access, participation and achievement of students engaged in under-graduate programmes. These local datasets will be used to develop Equity Scorecards for promoting inclusion and achievement of socially and economically excluded groups in the case study institutions. By revealing how patterns of inclusion and exclusion are changing over time, the Equity Scorecards provide tools for measuring how well institutions are doing in terms of widening participation in higher education. The quantitative data will be accompanied by life history interviews with students from ‘non-traditional’ backgrounds and semi-structured interviews with academic staff and policy-makers. In this way, the project will interrogate the role that universities play in poverty reduction and achievement of the Millennium Development Goals.
ESRC Society Today
Cormac Connolly
Freely available, ESRC Society Today offers a broad picture of the social sciences, and research that is being planned or is already in progress around particular social science subjects. The service combines information from the ESRC Awards and Outputs Database (as far back as 1975), and a variety of other data sources and sites to offer a unique social sciences research resource. ESRC Society Today provides access to an unrivalled range of high quality social and economic research content that can be cross-searched in one place and provides a gateway to key materials. The site has been designed and built to be a valuable tool for the ESRC award holder community, the wider academic community alike, and more broadly is also committed to providing materials that are of relevance to government, the voluntary and business sectors, the media, and even the general public.
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