Conference Abstracts

International Data Needs
Tanvi Desai, London School of Economics Research Lab

The presentation will briefly explore some findings from the ESRC project on International Data Resources and Needs. We will look at barriers to data access, problems with data quality and challenges to data use, including equality of access. Finally we will discuss possible strategies for improvement in these areas, including an introduction to the International Database of Statistical Sources being developed for the Project.

Monitoring the Millenium Development Goals: measuring poor social conditions through household surveys
Roy Car Hill, Universities of East London, London and York

There is international recognition that the quality of statistics available in developing countries has deteriorated so that, increasingly, assessments of a country's situation or its progress towards the Millenium Development Goals are made through two or three series of household surveys, rather than through routine administrative systems. Whilst the response rates to household surveys tend to be much higher in developing countries than in European countries, these series suffer from the structural problems of household surveys that are compounded in a developing country context.

First, with rare exceptions, the sampling frames of Household Surveys omit:

• Those not in households because they are homeless
• Nomadic or pastoralist populations
• Those in institutions

Moreover, in practice, surveys also omit many of those in fragile or disjointed or multiple occupancy households. Unfortunately those four categories (the homeless, the nomads, those in institutions and those in disjointed households) are likely to constitute a significant fraction of the very poor in many developing countries.

Secondly, the measurement of poverty is contested not only theoretically but it is also very difficult in practice. The conventional levels are only weakly related to measures of mortality, education etc.; if based on household expenditure, the interpretation is often unclear; and the move towards asset indices generates its own problems. Moreover, neither consumption nor income poverty may be the most salient.

Thirdly, there are general problems with self-reporting: the focus is on household rather than community or intra-household poverty; there are known associations between income and reporting of health and use of services; and recall is difficult.

In order to have a realistic assessment of trends in poverty - and therefore progress or not towards the MDGs - both at the national and regional level, it is important to:

1. examine the extent to which these four difficulties create a bias in the estimation of (trends in) the national level of poverty (and poverty related targets); and whether they bias the estimation of the distribution of those indicators within country or of relationship between those indicators and other household characteristics.
2. Establish that poverty measures used within a country are meaningful for that country or that region within a country
3. Be cautious about relying on self-reports of health and use of services

In the longer term, of course, the focus should be on improving the quality of routine administrative statistics but this has to go hand-in hand with real decentralisation.

Developing a panel database 1970-2003 for global energy-environment economy modelling of climate change mitigation
Terry Barker, University of Cambridge

Abstract not yet available.

Optimal Currency Areas: Theory, Evidence and Implications for an African Single Currency
Paul Adams, MSc Development Economics, University of Manchester

Monetary integration, to varying degrees has become an increasingly important phenomenon within the modern global economic era. Africa has been planning economic, political and monetary union since 1963, partly as a means towards social integration. This study focuses on the economic elements of monetary union, placing it firmly within the context of the theory of optimal currency areas and with special reference to Africa. An assessment of theoretical and applied empirical literature is discussed. This encompasses a discussion of traditional optimal currency area theory as initiated by Mundell (1961) and McKinnon (1963) as well as further developments in the so called ‘Modern’ theory. It is found that there is a wide range of methodological tools with which to apply the theory though it was seen that most of these were understandably with regards to the European Union.

This literature review, along with data and time limitations informed the empirical methodology applied in this study. The empirical gaps, suggested by the literature were two fold: firstly the assignment of countries to a streamlined arrangement of regional economic communities and secondly an assessment of the possible trade benefits that a single currency can offer. These were addressed by an adaptation of Bayoumi and Eichengreen’s (1997, 1997a) OCA index and followed by a Gravity model analysis of intra African trade. From this an assignment of regional economic communities was found based along predicted bilateral exchange rates and that those countries that had entered into regional currency unions within Africa had significantly higher bilateral trade. Two major points were concluded: that assignment of regional economic communities should occur sooner rather than later to prevent duplication of effort and contradictory policies; and that whilst complete monetary integration may not be feasible or beneficial, movement towards integration will certainly entail extra benefits.

Does more international trade result in highly correlated business cycles?
Tao Xing, University of Bath

This paper investigates whether trade intensity is a determinant of business cycle correlations. We find that the greater economic convergence experienced by a sample of 24 countries from 1959 to 2003 is strongly influenced by the increased amount of bilateral trade they have undertaken. However, the magnitude and significance of the estimated relationship is not the same for all countries. Our evidence indicates that trade amongst the European countries has had the most beneficial effect on business cycle co movements, which from optimal currency area (OCA) theory would support the decision of most of these economies to join European Monetary Union (EMU).

Shocks from the System: Remodeling Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Latin America and the Caribbean 1960-1995
Nicole Baerg, McGill University, Canada

This paper proposes and tests a new model determining the choice of the exchange rate regime in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Using a new index compiled from the IMF's International Financial Statistics, the key insight is that systemic level financial market instability plays an important role in choosing the exchange rate regime. Using new data from Reinhart and Rogoff (2004), a second insight is that countries do not always follow the type of exchange rate regime they claim. Testing the determinants of regime choice using both the traditional, official de jure and new, market de facto data, I examine Latin America and the Caribbean countries over the 1960 to 1995 period. Using pooled cross-sectional time series analysis, I account for spatial and temporal dimensions inherent in the pooled sample. The evidence reveals that systemic level variables, namely instability in the US interest rate and the bilateral USD:DEM/Euro exchange rate, significantly impact the choice of the exchange rate regime.

From raw data to rich data
Eileen Capponi, Senior Data Editor, OECD Publishing

Sophisticated tools such as web queries allow international organisations to collect data from national statistics offices and central banks. Then the data are verified, adjusted and reshaped so that they can be disseminated in a different form. But what goes on behind the scenes? This paper outlines the process of adding value to the numbers, so that they can be found and understood.

You get what you pay for? Why free access may put limits on dissemination.
Toby Green, Head of Dissemination & Marketing, OECD Publishing

"Give access to the general public" and "if it was freely available, then everybody would use our data", cry many statisticians, senior managers and directors of statistical offices. Indeed, since most statistics are gathered using public money, the argument that the public should not have to pay again to access the data is very strong. Logic also suggests that maximum dissemination cannot be achieved if access requires payment. But is free access the key to maximising dissemination? This presentation will look at the challenges of maximising dissemination when market mechanisms have been removed from the data publisher's toolbox.

Relevance and Applicability of the UNIDO Industrial Statistics Database for Research Purposes
Tetsuo Yamada, Chief Statistician, United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO)

This paper overviews the relevance and applicability of the existing international industrial statistics for the industrial development and related research in the macro economic framework and the importance of comparable data for accurate and objective economic research on industry and industrial policy formulation. Arguments are based on the following assumptions:

• Information (together with theories and concepts) is essential for any decision-making. Because of the accelerating dynamics in socio-economic development together with increasing complexity in Information Technology system, quick, decisive and relevant decision making on solid factual grounds gains increasingly important.
• Statistical information is of prime importance because of its quantitative nature and the resulting features of objectivity and comparability. Meaningful monitoring, interpretation and prediction of structure and performance relating to production, trade, investment, etc. can be made only empirically.
• In the era of globalization of economy, monitoring of industrial development and related economic-growth empirics require specialized and detailed economic industrial statistics as an indispensable information basis. Viable strategies, policies and programmes for sustainable industrial development and investment cannot be formulated unless they are well prepared based on such statistics and analysis. Those that are not based on relevant empirical evidence would be subject to dispute.
• However, this argument holds only if the statistical data are qualitatively comparable within each of the specified data dimensions (e.g., countries, industries, years, etc.) and, needless to say, they are relevant and accurate. In this regard, the usefulness of the currently available international data on industrial statistics is limited and their applicability depends to a large extent on research purposes.

The paper describes briefly (i) possible sources of the incomparability of the available data on industrial statistics, (ii) UNIDO’s efforts to reduce the data incomparability and to fill existing data gaps, and (iii) the importance of metadata in support of the statistical data to ensure proper use of the statistical data.

Poster session

ESRC Society Today
Cormac Connolly

ESRC Society Today, which went live in late March 2005, combines information from the ESRC Awards and Outputs Database (formerly Regard) the "old" ESRC website at, and a variety of other data sources and sites to offer a unique new social sciences research resource.

It is envisioned that ESRC Society Today will provide access to an unrivalled range of high quality social and economic research material. The site has been designed and built to be a valuable tool both for the ESRC award holder community, and the wider academic community alike. More broadly ESRC is also commited to providing materials that are of relevance to government, the voluntary and business sectors, the media, and even the general public.

Freely available, the site will offer a broad picture of the research available, both planned and in progress around particular social science subjects. As well as bringing together all ESRC-funded research, it is strongly hoped that ESRC Society Today will act as a gateway to other key online resources.

ESDS International - macro data
Susan Noble, Celia Russell, Nicholas Syrotiuk

ESDS International provides access to, and support for, a range of international datasets. The service aims to promote and facilitate increased and more effective use of international datasets in research, learning and teaching across a range of disciplines. This poster session will give you the chance to meet the staff of ESDS International, see how the data is delivered and to let the ESDS International team know of your data needs and thoughts on future service development.

ESDS International - micro data
Birgit Austin, Lorna Balkan

ESDS International can help UK-based users to locate and acquire micro data from other social science data archives within Europe and worldwide, via a system of data exchange agreements.

Some international datasets, such as cross-national surveys that can be used for comparative research, can be ordered/accessed via the ESDS/UKDA online catalogue. These include the Eurobarometer Survey Series, the European Social Survey, European Values Study, International Social Survey Programme and the World Values Survey.

Users may also identify data from other national data archives using clickable maps, containing links to the web sites of other national archives, provided on the ESDS International web site. Users can then request these data via their UKDA online account.

In addition, the UKDA are involved in an EU funded project, MADIERA, which aims to create a portal providing access to an unprecedented quantity of European social science quantitative datasets using an easy to use Web interface.

This poster session will give you the chance to meet the staff of ESDS International, see how the data is delivered and to let the ESDS International team know of your data needs and thoughts on future service development.

Satellite Data Image Service
Gail Millin, MIMAS, University of Manchester

The Satellite Data Image Service provides web-based access to, and support for, a range of satellite image datasets – ranging from Landsat and SPOT optical imagery to ERS radar data and a 25m Digital Elevation Model for the whole of the UK. The service aims to increase spatial data accessibility for UK academia. The service has recently taken part in exploring geodata interoperability between other national data centres using Open Geospatial Consortium protocols such as Web Map Services (WMS) and Web Coverage Services (WCS).

Recent work has involved the creation of new learning materials for our subscribed users such as the new image processing courses which guide users on how to apply satellite imagery to a variety of applications using well know image processing packages such as ENVI, ERDAS Imagine, PCI and Idrisi Kilimanjaro. The team is dedicated to expanding the datasets hosted and in early 2006 new ENVISAT products (ASAR) will be available for download. This poster session will give you the chance to meet the staff of the Satellite Image Data Service and discuss your data needs, how to subscribe to the service and thoughts on future service development.

Chessplayers' birth pattern in the European Union member states
Fernand Gobet and Philippe Chassy, Centre for Cognition and Neuroimaging and Centre for the Study of Expertise, Brunel University

For over more than a century, psychologists and others have argued about the origin of superior performance in intellectual domains - are intellectual abilities innate or acquired? With the game of chess, a domain widely studied in psychology, the weight of the evidence favours the role of practice over biological markers.

We tested the hypothesis that the month of birth correlates with the probability of becoming an expert-level chessplayer. The International Chess Federation publishes ratings of all strong competitive players quadriannually. From the second issue of the 2001 rating list, we extracted the month of birth of all the players registered in the 25 Member States of the European Union. In order to correct for a possible seasonality effect in the population at large, we extracted the population statistics from the Eurostat New Cronos database for the same countries, from 1973 to 2001. The results show a clear and statistically reliable pattern. We discuss possible reasons for this seasonality effect.